The situation is dramatic. 300.000 used Euro 5 Diesel are at the dealers on heap. Demand in Germany tends to zero, only when exporting something. In addition, the prices for diesel vehicles continue to fall. Leasing returns are expected to be around 15% among the calculated residual values lie. A ticking time bomb for trade and consumers.
The drama, whose development is anything but surprising, already took 2008 its run. With the Air Quality Directive 2008 / 50 / EC the living conditions of EU citizens should be improved. Better air in the inner cities and metropolitan areas, a plus in quality of life. A great opportunity and the signal for a departure into the future. For politics the possibility to show will to design. Germany, the enormously rich country that has virtually invented the car, could once again have been groundbreaking. A future laboratory that delivers not only hardware but complete solutions. Mobility as a service, the next big thing for the future, right in the heart of Europe for a better planet.
10 years have passed since then. Instead of boldly investing billions in the future of the country with visions for the future, politics relied on stricter emission standards. Until recently, diesel was sold as an alternative to achieving environmental goals, the Internet being called new territory. Digitalization perceived only as an opportunity. Fast internet, the backbone of the digital revolution, is more desirable than reality for many places in Germany. Other countries did better and created structures. In Helsinki, plans include a fleet of autonomous pods to 2025, the British capital relies on electric taxis and extends the emission-free public transport. Paris gradually banishes burners from the metropolis, and China is a big laboratory of new ideas.
The Plaque Republic
And Germany is discussing. About plaques that blue could be. Maybe even dark blue and light blue, so you can distinguish between Euro 5, 6 and 6d temp. For Euro 5 drivers, the ADAC found out, could sue for a free ride on Euro 6 diesel. And would probably win. A Euro 6 diesel should be just as clean beyond the test bench as a Euro-5 make. Badges have a certain tradition in Germany. If politicians have no more ideas, then let us stick plaques.
Does anyone remember the Ozone plaque? Superfluous, but effective in terms of media. And then the green, yellow and red badges. For free travel through the environmental zone, or not. With their launch of 2008, millions of diesel vehicles were canceled because they did not receive a green badge. A destruction of national wealth, then already. And diesel drivers should not say that they had not been warned.
Today you can watch videos like Euro 5 Diesel at Exploiters land, Good vehicles that could still be on 10 or 15 years. Here not only assets are destroyed, here also the environment is rendered a bad service. The exchange of an older diesel for a new, slightly less polluting vehicle uses the economy alone. The production of a new car devours more resources than it would ever bring in the switch from an 5-year-old vehicle to a new car. Sustainability and responsible use of raw materials is different.
In the coming weeks you will see if there are driving restrictions. It's moving a lot and it's hard to keep track. In politics, it seems that there is a need to come to terms with hardware upgrades. 70% of the 15 million diesel approved in Germany in the year 2017 Euro 5 or worse. Too big a mass to devalue them in one fell swoop. Moreover, beyond the campaign against diesel vehicles, it is slowly dawning that this kind of drive could have a future.
The diesel is battered, his reputation ruined for now. You should not write it down yet. Because the measurements for vehicles that meet the Euro 6d standard are surprisingly good. Under the massive pressure of events, the industry is now offering seemingly clean diesel, which can significantly undercut the new standards. A mistrust remains nevertheless. Are the new ones really clean now? Or is a shutdown device waiting for activation somewhere in the software?
Diesel owners should wait
There is uncertainty at the moment. There are no legal guidelines for retrofitting, the legislature is in the duty. Only when the conditions are, you should rate what is. The prices for used Saab 9-5 NG Diesel, which correspond to the Euro 5 norm, are in the basement. They continue to decline, and trade-ins are called low prices. The demand for a 9-5 NG diesel is zero. If there is a hardware upgrade, the courses rise again. It is not impossible to exclude, the diesel from the GM group were also installed in the Opel Insigina, and there is a high need for retrofitting.
If you own a Saab Diesel with Euro 4 or worse, you should also stay in waiting. Driving bans are the most extreme means that car companies and politics would like to avoid. Anyone who lives outside the affected areas and does not commute daily, is better advised to keep what he has. Discussions, the past has shown, calm down again and again.
And should the new Euro 6d diesel be really clean, then the campaign will subside. However, and that should be clear to all of us, diesel discussion and the impending driving bans are only the harbinger of a new era.
The individual traffic itself is facing an era. Anyone who wants clean inner cities in the metropolitan regions, they will not get them, if we continue to live as before. The car itself will disappear from the core areas. Not immediately, but faster than some of us would like to admit. It does not matter whether you drive a diesel, a hybrid or an electric car in the future. The future is digital, and intelligently managed mobility from the cloud becomes a service.
Who does not believe this: 32% of the particle emissions from road traffic come from brakes and tires. A topic that is now for the first time examined becomes. And in a few years maybe the next big thing for driving bans.