The situation in Sweden is dire. Real estate sales cannot change that either. Because it is - as is so often the case in acute crisis situations - "to little, to late".
The current fate of Saab, in the short and medium term, will no longer be decided in Trollhättan or Sweden. The decision is made in other places around the globe.
Because the Swedish Minister of State Reinfeldt said yesterday the following sentence in connection with Saab "Sweden invests in people, not in the maintenance of old existing structures". That was clear. There is no support for Trollhättan from Stockholm.
Decisions about Saab's future are falling around the globe, for a variety of reasons.
Western Europe, Luxembourg:
The EIB is based in Luxembourg and we actually don't want to write about the EIB anymore, because the EIB is pure Saab frustration for us. The EIB loan is Saab's "rope around the neck". The loan is too expensive, inflexible and blocks all entrepreneurial freedom. In addition, everything that Saab has in valuable collateral was pledged for this loan. The current worsening of the situation is largely due to the EIB.
The EIB takes the key position in the current scenario and will decide the short-term destiny in the next few days.
The real estate business depends on the EIB, because it has a veto right. If the EIB says “No”, even a “Yes” from Stockholm would be of no use, then the sale of the property is no longer valid.
Yesterday it was made clear that Saab will not be making any funding available until further notice. The message came unmistakably via the Svenska Dagbladet and is a clear warning to Saab. “Get the finances in order, otherwise we'll turn the juice off you”, that's the message of the EIB.
Very unlikely is the release of collateral, Saab should not significantly improve the financial situation. Saab is considered acutely threatened by bankruptcy. No bank relinquishes valuable collateral in this situation.
There is no need to talk about entering Antonov, the EIB has blocked it. It stays that way. Rescue from the EIB blockade could only be a replacement of the loan. For that, it would need a generous donor.
The powerful NDRC is based in Beijing and decides whether Youngman and Pang Da will join Saab. Victor Muller's timetable provides for the Chinese to enter the market in autumn at the latest, which would ensure that the automaker is liquid and that the medium-term future is secured. However, the situation in China is not good - you can already guess it.
The Financial Times sees the business in the blackest colors as not "approvable". William Russo, an analyst with the CEO of Synergetics in Beijing, sees the schedule as unrealistic. "It is unlikely that the policy in the Pang Da and Youngman case will decide before the end of the year," he told Dagens Industri.
Other car analysts, such as Fang Ju of Minzu Securities and analyst company Synovate of Shanghai, have a similar opinion.
Why ? The markets in China are increasingly regulated, the government wants to go in the direction of e-mobility and finally force the auto industry to join together in some large corporations. Saab comes at a politically unfavorable time.
A decision at the end of the year is definitely too late. Already now the situation in Trollhättan erodes daily.
North America, USA, Detroit:
Detroit, GM? Victor Muller was in the US and also visited GM in Detroit. GM sits on a mountain of non-voting Saab shares and GM is licensor of Saab. Yesterday, at a very late hour, we received an indication of opportunities that could arise with GM in the short term.
Every blogger has his sources, some are familiar and trustworthy. Others are new and bad to classify. So did the source that told us yesterday about GM and Saab. That's why we leave it up to you to keep Detroit out of your sight.
In own thing:
If you have found the blog too negative in the last few days, as commenter Marcus seems to feel - we are sorry. We, the bloggers, come from an environment that has sharpened our focus on certain situations. On the legendary Saab blog "saabsunited" you still wear rose-colored glasses, maybe take a look there, because two opinions are always better than one.
The times are dramatic, we are looking for positive things with the magnifying glass and if we find any then we publish them.
Only - in the current situation - it is difficult for us.
But maybe things that we now see as negative are in reality painful, but long-term positive events. We try to report objectively, but feel obliged to communicate the respective contexts to our readers as "unadorned" and truthfully as possible.
Hoping for better Saab times.