Update 12: 09
In Stockholm, Detroit and Beijing, the fate of Saab decides. Much has to be clarified this week, with a new statement in Detroit. Interesting the fact that my good friend in Stockholm on Friday before the Swedish press and before the other blogs knew about it. For once I thank you publicly for the support of the last months, because I know, he reads along with.
How the decisions are made this week is not sure. Only what we know is certain. The support from the Chinese investors is standing by and funds are flowing continuously from China to Sweden to get Saab liquid and to continue the reconstruction. For me an important and good signal from the People's Republic.
Do I want to speculate today? Yes, I want it to be Monday and I feel like it.
At the weekend, the Swedish press considered whether Youngman and Pang Da Saab could buy without GM technology. Several publications expressed their opinion and the result amazed.
Yes, Youngman and Pang Da could do that. The Saab 9-3 is largely owned by Saab Automobile and there are very few GM licenses in it. Even those, it is said, are questionable - so that the Saab 9-3 could be regarded as a license-free product. The new Phoenix platform is 100% Saab property, i.e. 100% GM free 🙂.
It looks bad in the current Saab 9-5 and the new sports suit. The series is owned by 100% GM, without Detroit nothing works. Just like the Saab 9-4x, which runs on GM bands and is 100% Intellectual Property of Detroiters. Grrrr.
Soberly, it would be a math problem in this poker game. In about 18 months, the 9-3 successor would be ready for the series. Until then, the old 9-3 could continue to be built.
The Saab 9-3 and its successor is the bread and butter car of Saab. Here money is earned and quantities made. If the successor is running, one could focus on the development of the Saab 9-5 successor, the 9-6x, the 9-7 and the 9-4x successor based on the PhoeniX platform. These developments are already on the current agenda in Trollhättan. The new little Saab is already in work.
A story with many question marks. The relativize considering that GM for Saab 9-5 and Saab 9-4x neatly concede licensing funds. Suddenly the license purchase for Saab is not so lucrative and the position of GM is not as strong as expected.
Why am I writing this.
So we see that all actors are in a boat. Youngman and Pang Da could do without GM. Everything would be a bit more expensive, the bill would be a few million higher.
GM could do without Saab, but then in the medium term would have millions less in the cash.
It is poker, on a very high level, with a very high level of commitment. A blockade on the Americans would not be the end of Saab. But, in the end, somehow, everyone would have lost.
Another friend from Sweden writes on the subject following mail and I think he is right.
You hit the nail on the head again. GM also knows that SAAB is making volume with the 9-3 and is therefore still ready to supply engines and transmissions for the 9-3. This has been assured several times. The 9-5 is, as you write, not so interesting for SAAB in terms of quantities and not financially lucrative due to high royalties.
Why GM uses the 9-5 and the 9-4x as leverage makes little sense. GM does not want to kill Saab, we are firmly convinced of that. Because a cow that you could milk, you do not kill.
Thanks to Lars for the mail!