The press in Sweden does not like Saab. The alleged smashing of the car maker seems possible. In the meantime, more details about the current situation of the cult brand have become known from reliable sources. What I have learned in personal conversations does not sound good at first and causes more questions than we could find answers to. But it's bidding time and that's sort of election campaign in politics. It is veiled, clocked and no one can look in the cards. Especially since there may be solutions that do not open up at first glance.
Let's start with Youngman. The offer for Saab should be so low that a rejection is inevitable. Our source speaks of around 2 billion crowns, which is around € 220 million. Several independent sources have now confirmed a bid in this range. The value of individual parts of the business alone is higher than this offer. Is it just a banter from Rachel Pang to add something later, or is Youngman only bidding on individual parts of the company? Or do you play the joker of jobs? Anyone who expected the Chinese to march through quickly will be disappointed by now at the latest. If you stick to this bid, you can already buy the ticket to Beijing from the delegation.
The position of Brightwell is considered unrealistic. No one believes that negotiations with GM lead to the result, and doubts about the financial capacity of the Turks are also voiced. Too little is known about the background of the investors and the obvious proximity to Victor Muller brings no confidence bonus. In Sweden, it is expected that the Turks will leave the bidding race soon.
As if that wasn't enough, there are initial details on the position of Mahindra & Mahindra. Circles report that the Indians are only planning to build electric vehicles in Sweden and are looking for a European location for small numbers. Yesterday that didn't sound very credible to me, but has now been confirmed by the second party. If that were the Indian plan, it would be a disappointment. As I said, the source of this message is credible, but it can still be targeted disinformation.
This would give us, alongside BAIC / Panasonic, a second producer of e-vehicles. Both want to take over only a few, few parts of the business. After the low Youngman offer, which makes no sense, the planning to break up the Saab Group comes to the fore. Volvo wants to buy factory equipment, test benches and laboratories. Semcon also and delivers a bidding dispute with Volvo. Third parties want to set up a supplier company with Saab Know How at the factory.
Yet it is not so far. Youngman is playing poker, that's my assessment. The Chinese need the complete work, for parts every crown would be a crown too much. Packing the PhoeniX platform and getting it done in China is unrealistic, lacking know-how, personnel, facilities. There are only two options for Youngman. Put more money on the table or get on the plane. Incidentally, the amount expected by the administrators is much higher than the current offer.
It may also be that we experience a surprise in the next 10 weeks. Our bidder, who for good reasons insists on anonymity, could be the winner. He works very professionally in the background, as I expected. Confidentiality has also been agreed with the administrators of this party, unlike Brightwell Holding. The award might be the best of all possibilities for Trollhättan and the brand. For the brand, there are long-term undreamt-of possibilities. The tools and test laboratories could gladly take over Volvo. Because it would someday in summer or fall, the dredgers in the stable bake roll and there would be brisk construction activity. New facilities, only the finest would arise. An investment program already exists, because the demands are high. There would also be enough space around the factory.
The bankruptcy trustees will drag out the process, my feeling says. Because every day more, is a big plus in the account. Youngman has been unhappy from the current perspective. Presenting an offer that can not be denied would have put pressure on the administrators. You have not done that for whatever reason.
Let's stay relaxed! Despite good contacts, we know too little about the current process. Surprises are possible. It is a huge puzzle in which only a few parts are suitable. There is a lot of work going on behind the scenes and there have been a number of hurdles over the past week. Saab restarts, first results of the highly professional organization process become visible. The development is positive for Saab and for survival. Maybe we can write about it sometime soon.
As always, we stay tuned. Updates follow.