The situation is dramatic. 300.000 used Euro 5 Diesel are at the dealers on heap. Demand in Germany tends to zero, only when exporting something. In addition, the prices for diesel vehicles continue to fall. Leasing returns are expected to be around 15% among the calculated residual values lie. A ticking time bomb for trade and consumers.
The drama, the development of which is anything but surprising, began in 2008. With the Air Quality Directive 2008 / 50 / EC the living conditions of EU citizens should be improved. Better air in city centers and metropolitan areas, a plus in quality of life. A great opportunity and the signal for a departure into the future. The possibility for politicians to show the will to shape. Germany, the enormously rich country that practically invented the car, could have been groundbreaking again. A laboratory of the future that not only supplies hardware, but complete solutions. Mobility as a service, the next big thing for the future, right from the heart of Europe for a better planet.
10 years have passed since then. Instead of boldly investing billions in the future of the country with visions for the future, politicians relied on stricter emissions standards. Until recently, diesel was sold as having no alternative for achieving environmental goals, and the Internet was described as uncharted territory. Digitization only perceived as an opportunity. Fast Internet, the backbone of the digital revolution, is more a wish than a reality for many places in Germany. Other countries did better and created structures. In Helsinki, plans include a fleet of autonomous pods by 2025, while the British capital is relying on electric taxis and expanding emission-free local public transport. Paris is gradually banning combustion engines from the metropolis, and China is a great laboratory of new ideas.
The Plaque Republic
And Germany is discussing. About badges that could be blue. Maybe even dark blue and light blue, so you can distinguish between Euro 5, 6 and 6d temp. For Euro 5 drivers, the ADAC found out, could sue for a free ride on Euro 6 diesel. And would probably win. A Euro 6 diesel should be just as clean beyond the test bench as a Euro-5 make. Badges have a certain tradition in Germany. If politicians have no more ideas, then let us stick plaques.
Does anyone remember the Ozone plaque? Superfluous, but effective in terms of media. And then the green, yellow and red badges. For free travel through the environmental zone, or not. With their launch of 2008, millions of diesel vehicles were canceled because they did not receive a green badge. A destruction of national wealth, then already. And diesel drivers should not say that they had not been warned.
Today you can watch in videos how Euro 5 diesel was used Exploiters land, Good vehicles that could still be on 10 or 15 years. Here not only assets are destroyed, here also the environment is rendered a bad service. The exchange of an older diesel for a new, slightly less polluting vehicle uses the economy alone. The production of a new car devours more resources than it would ever bring in the switch from an 5-year-old vehicle to a new car. Sustainability and responsible use of raw materials is different.
In the coming weeks we will see whether there will be driving bans. There's a lot going on and it's hard to keep track of things. In politics, there seems to be a widespread understanding that hardware retrofits must be carried out. 70% of the 15 million diesels registered in Germany were Euro 2017 or worse in 5. Too large a mass to devalue in one fell swoop. In addition, beyond the campaign against diesel vehicles, it is slowly dawning that this type of drive could have a future.
The diesel is battered, his reputation ruined for now. You should not write it down yet. Because the Measurements for vehicles that meet the Euro 6d standard are surprisingly good. Under the massive pressure of events, the industry is now offering seemingly clean diesel, which can significantly undercut the new standards. A mistrust remains nevertheless. Are the new ones really clean now? Or is a shutdown device waiting for activation somewhere in the software?
Diesel owners should wait
At the moment there is uncertainty. There are no legal guidelines for retrofitting, the legislator is required. Only when the framework conditions are in place should you evaluate what is. The prices for used Saab 9-5 NG diesel, which meet the Euro 5 standard, are in the basement. They keep falling, and low prices are quoted for trade-ins. The demand for a 9-5 NG diesel is zero. If there is a hardware upgrade, prices rise again. It cannot be ruled out, the diesels from the GM group were also installed in the Opel Insigina, and there is a high need for retrofitting there.
Anyone who owns a Saab Diesel with Euro 4 or worse should also remain on hold. Driving bans are the ultimate remedy that car companies and politicians would like to avoid. Those who live outside the affected areas and do not commute every day are better advised to keep what they have. The past has shown that discussions always calm down.
And should the new Euro 6d diesel be really clean, then the campaign will subside. However, and that should be clear to all of us, diesel discussion and the impending driving bans are only the harbinger of a new era.
Private transport itself is facing a turning point. If you want clean inner cities in the metropolitan regions, you won't get them if we continue to live as we have before. The car itself will disappear from the core areas. Not right away, but faster than some of us would like to admit. It does not matter whether you drive a diesel, a hybrid or an electric car in the future. The future is digital, and intelligently controlled mobility from the cloud is becoming a service.
Who does not believe this: 32% of the particle emissions from road traffic come from brakes and tires. A topic that is now for the first time examined becomes. And in a few years maybe the next big thing for driving bans.