In 3 years. 1 million electric cars annually.

Ambitious goals are good. They inspire us to peak performance. Evergrande, majority shareholder at NEVS, is planning big things. In June, finally, the first electric car from the tape run. And in the next 3 years, one would then like to build between 500.000 and 1 million electric cars per year. Our view today goes to China, into the future.

NEVS Tianjin Factory. 1 million electric cars in 3 years?
NEVS Tianjin Factory. 1 million electric cars in 3 years?

Has big plans EvergrandeBut what is the substance behind it? A look at the works lets us count. Trollhättan has a possible capacity of 150.000 vehicles, Tianjin as well. The unconfirmed plant in Shanghai should be able to produce a comparable volume. That would put annual capacity at 450.000 vehicles. In theory.

Because Tianjin is scheduled to go into operation from June, but it still looks bad for Trollhattan. There would be a lot of investment needed to make the plant ready for production. And that should not be immediately realizable in time. Unless Evergrande - in the style of Tesla - electric vehicles only for final assembly in Sweden deliver. In order to produce one million vehicles a year in 3, Evergrande would have to double the number of plants.

Does Evergrande have the necessary resources?

Much is being written about the high level of indebtedness of China's third largest real estate developer. It is clear that financial figures work well except for very short term liabilities. Core earnings rose 2018, also due to revaluations, by 93.3% to 11,87 billion USD. At the same time, debt at the beginning of the year fell from 109 billion at the beginning of the year to 100 billion at the end of the year. For 2019, Evergrande plans to generate revenues that will lead to sustainable debt reduction. The 2 billion USD that the company wants to invest in electromobility as a first step seems to be low.

The market is in transition

Why is a real estate developer investing in the mobility business? The huge real estate boom in China is considered finished. The housing shortage is largely eliminated, the consequences of the 1 child policy are now noticeable. Not only Evergrande, but also other real estate giants, are looking for the next, big coup.

As such, the future mobility business will be, even if things get more difficult. The administration in Beijing is pulling the strings in promoting vehicles. Subsidies that used to be wasteful are being radically cut by up to 75%. There are reasons for that, because the subsidies brought with them remarkable excesses. Manufacturers cashed for small electrical vehicles that were barely fit for everyday life. Electric cars were sold to fleet operators, but never moved. Again and again the press reports on such "ghost fleets" that are supposed to be everywhere in the country. No wonder, because it is estimated that e-mobility in China between 2009 and 2017 with 36,5 billion USD was subsidized. And that creates desires.

Now everything should be more targeted. The Administration demands more quality from the manufacturers. Greater ranges, lower energy consumption and a top speed of more than 100 km / h. With higher minimum requirements you finally want to get into the 1. League of suppliers and act with manufacturers such as Tesla on equal terms.

Perhaps a key to the success of NEVS and Evergrande lies in Sweden? Gothenburg demonstrated how it works. With the Polestar 2 2020 is the first Swedish-Chinese electric car that could score against Tesla. The development partnership with Koenigsegg could lead in the medium term to a similar success as it CEVT for Volvo and the Geely group. Construction and company headquarters in Sweden, production in China and in Trollhättan. The perspective for the old Saab factory, it would be there.

Many imponderables

There are many imponderables. There would be free access to markets, which is no longer as safe today as it was a few years ago. A slowing economy in China, high corporate debt, a weak market for new vehicles. The unresolved question of whether the battery electric car will be the measure of all things in the medium term. It is not without reason that the Chinese administration annually invests large sums in the research and development of fuel cell vehicles.

However, the first proof of seriousness for NEVS under Evergrande is June. Production start, yes or no? And this time please, really, and no staging for the media.

15 thoughts too "In 3 years. 1 million electric cars annually."

  • 4. April 2019 at 11: 02 AM
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    That sounds good, but why does not Evergrande / Koenigsegg make another attempt to repurchase GM's brand name SAAB and launch its electric and / or fuel-cell vehicles under the name SAAB, which would have much more pulling power. It's never too late to try again ....

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    • 4. April 2019 at 11: 15 AM
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      The question is certainly justified. I'll introduce myself too. Why start with the NEVS brand (does anyone even know that person outside the blog?), If you could have SAAB?

      BTW: You can only buy at the SAAB AB, GM is out.

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  • 4. April 2019 at 11: 53 AM
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    Ambitious goals ..., that's the title of the article.
    The article shows that in China is "much expected" ;-), is also sometimes charged etc. :-(.
    In sum, a dream of "the 1. League "in the mobility industry.
    I am behaving. Too many governmental influences possible ..., too many imponderables ..., too many previous "air numbers". The latter is crucial.
    So: we readers only have to wait for the 01.07.19 🙂 Then we will know: They did it ..., or not.

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  • 4. April 2019 at 12: 22 PM
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    Before talking about 3 millions of vehicles, you should first start with the number 1.

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  • 4. April 2019 at 12: 23 PM
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    If I read through the whole story, I spontaneously remember the company NanoFlowCell.

    The company was founded by the controversial Swiss inventor Nunzio La Vecchia and is said to have 'spent' about CHF 50 million on developing a redox flux battery (https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redox-Flow-Batterie).

    The concept of the redox flux battery was also propagated in the 1970 years by the Swiss power plant manufacturer BBC (now ABB) and tested at NASA for the energy storage and supply of spacecraft. Whether it was really used there, I do not know.

    La Vecchia had a development partnership with Koenigsegg. This was abruptly ended by Koenigsegg for reasons unknown to me. The vehicle, which La Vecchia and his team developed and presented 2015 / 16, may be based on the developments made at that time with Koenigsegg. At that time, the automobile press was very impressed, among other things, the German magazine Auto, Motor und Sport (not quite known for its friendliness towards foreign cars).https://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/fahrbericht/nanoflowcell-quantino-fe-im-fahrbericht-elektroauto-nachtanken/). According to the website of NanoFlowCell, the car has since covered hundreds of thousands of test kilometers (https://emagazine.nanoflowcell.com/viewpoint/350k-kilometre-quantino-48volt/).

    If I continue to rummage through the NanoFlowCell website, I find the announcement that a mysterious investor wants a large amount of cars (https://mediacenter.nanoflowcell.com/news/2018-06-13-order-received-for-the-first-quant-low-voltage-electric-vehicles-with-a-contract-value-of-more-than-31-billion-euros/abb7f07fab813645aba7731fe0432bfa/).

    From a physical point of view, a functioning and conceptually long-lived redox flow battery would be an energy storage that is also conceivable for a vehicle. To be this, the energy density of the exchange medium, which generates electricity when pressed through the membrane, would have to be increased sustainably. And that's exactly what La Vecchia claims to have done. I have never seen the car of NanoFlowCell myself. But what I can imagine is that Koenigsegg has a lot of knowledge about this battery concept. Evergrande is apparently looking for a long-lived income stream. And this could be the production and distribution of the exchange medium for a redox flow battery similar to gasoline for an oil company.

    For me, the upgrades in Evergrande Group companies' balance sheets indicate that Evergrande has presented lenders and the Chinese Financial Market Authority a viable concept that will enable the group to produce a positive cash flow.

    But you will not learn much more, at least not until the first cars roll.

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    • 4. April 2019 at 3: 27 PM
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      ENERGY DENSITY

      But then you open up an exciting barrel. Thank you for info and links.

      NanoFlowCell writes for itself that they have achieved 600 Wh / l with their magical "fuel". Truly a sensation, because on Wikipedia, the redox flux battery depending on chemistry only 15 to 80 Wh / l certified ...

      All you need now is 1.000 liters of chemistry to recharge as much energy as 60 liters of diesel (10kWh / l). Incidentally, there are also organic and CO2-neutral. I'm not sure what to think about it? Interesting, the topic is already ...

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    • 4. April 2019 at 11: 17 PM
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      KNAPP 17 LITER

      Speaking of interest, the test car is very efficient with only 10 kWh on 100 km. Corresponds but also just 17l of the new miracle.
      In a vehicle of the upper middle class and at topping speed it should rather be 51 liter. In winter 52 (+ 1 for heating and ventilation). Must technically not be a problem. Without burners and gearbox you can install a 300 to 400 liter redox flow battery ...

      Exciting is the question of how much the wonder material should cost per liter and may. Also ecological. The need for the ominous liquid would be huge, would be higher by the factor 6 to 8. So it should cost only one-eighth, but would have to be transported and distributed with the 8-fachen effort. There's just an economic factor of 64 ...

      I wonder how you want to close this gap. Both economically and ecologically ...

      BioPower (Ethanol, BioDiesel and BioGas) from agricultural and forestry waste - we had the CO2-neutral solution ever close enough to touch. That would have been too easy. Way too easy. Can not be ergo either ...

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  • 4. April 2019 at 2: 36 PM
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    ONE CHILD POLICY?

    Does that mean NEVZ only wants to build cars with 9-3 EV 1.000.000 cars a year?

    Other manufacturers need quite a few children (various models of different vehicle classes) ...

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  • 4. April 2019 at 11: 50 PM
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    Other manufacturers have long outdated NEVS, auuserdem who knows NEVS at all and why should one buy a vehicle from them?
    What does NEVS have what other (electric) automakers do not have?

    Tesla has been writing red numbers for years, so how do NEVS want to make money?

    I can well imagine new SAAB models with alternative drives, too bad that none of the big car manufacturers would like to revive SAAB.

    I'm curious when NEVS is at the end.

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    • 5. April 2019 at 11: 38 AM
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      Honestly? I did not know that …

      Let's joke aside, I would like to know quite seriously whether NEVZ aims for the millions per year with just a single model (9-3) and within a single vehicle class. That would be completely unrealistic without any example and role model throughout the history of the automotive industry and also in the big Chinese market ...

      Unless the market is closed again and NEVZ chosen to be part of a state-socialist-mandated and national mobility campaign (similar to Trabant and Wartburg in the GDR) ...

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      • 5. April 2019 at 1: 59 PM
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        Certainly not. If the "old" NEVS plans should somehow endure, then you could cover almost all vehicle classes with the modular platform. And in a very intelligent way.

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        • 5. April 2019 at 2: 57 PM
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          One question mark less. Thank you!

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