In 3 years. 1 million electric cars annually.

Ambitious goals are good. They inspire us to peak performance. Evergrande, majority shareholder at NEVS, is planning big things. In June, finally, the first electric car from the tape run. And in the next 3 years, one would then like to build between 500.000 and 1 million electric cars per year. Our view today goes to China, into the future.

NEVS Tianjin Factory. 1 million electric cars in 3 years?
NEVS Tianjin Factory. 1 million electric cars in 3 years?

Has big plans EvergrandeBut what is the substance behind it? A look at the works lets us count. Trollhättan has a possible capacity of 150.000 vehicles, Tianjin as well. The unconfirmed plant in Shanghai should be able to produce a comparable volume. That would put annual capacity at 450.000 vehicles. In theory.

Because Tianjin should go into operation from June, but it still looks bad for Trollhättan. A number of investments would be required to get the plant ready for production. And that should not be realizable immediately in terms of time. Unless Evergrande - in the style of Tesla - only has electric vehicles delivered for final assembly in Sweden. In order to produce a million vehicles per year in 3 years, Evergrande would have to double the number of factories.

Does Evergrande have the necessary resources?

Much is being written about the high level of indebtedness of China's third largest real estate developer. It is clear that financial figures work well apart from very short term debt. Core revenue increased 2018% to $ 93.3 billion in 11,87, including through revaluations. At the same time, debt fell from $ 109 billion at the beginning of the year to $ 100 billion at the end of the year. For 2019 Evergrande plans to generate proceeds that will lead to sustainable debt reduction. The $ 2 billion that the company would like to invest in electromobility as a first step seems small.

The market is in transition

Why is a real estate developer investing in the mobility business? The huge real estate boom in China is considered finished. The housing shortage is largely eliminated, the consequences of the 1 child policy are now noticeable. Not only Evergrande, but also other real estate giants, are looking for the next, big coup.

The future business with mobility applies as such, even if things get more difficult. The Beijing administration is tightening the reins on promoting vehicles. Subsidies that were previously wasteful will be cut radically by up to 75%. There are reasons for this, because the subsidies resulted in remarkable excesses. Manufacturers paid for small electric vehicles that were hardly suitable for everyday use. Electric cars were sold to fleet operators but never moved. The press reports again and again of such “ghost fleets” that are supposed to exist all over the country. No wonder, because it is estimated that e-mobility in China between 2009 and 2017 36,5 billion USD was subsidized. And that creates desires.

Now everything should be more targeted. The Administration demands more quality from the manufacturers. Greater ranges, lower energy consumption and a top speed of more than 100 km / h. With higher minimum requirements you finally want to get into the 1. League of suppliers and act with manufacturers such as Tesla on equal terms.

Maybe one of the keys to the success of NEVS and Evergrande lies in Sweden? In Gothenburg they demonstrated how it works. The Polestar 2 will be the first Swedish-Chinese electric car that could score against Tesla in 2020. The development partnership with Koenigsegg could lead in the medium term to a similar success as it CEVT for Volvo and the Geely group. Construction and company headquarters in Sweden, production in China and in Trollhättan. The perspective for the old Saab factory, it would be there.

Many imponderables

There are many imponderables. There would be free access to markets, which is no longer as safe today as it was a few years ago. A slowing economy in China, high corporate debt, a weak market for new vehicles. The unresolved question of whether the battery electric car will be the measure of all things in the medium term. It is not without reason that the Chinese administration annually invests large sums in the research and development of fuel cell vehicles.

However, the first proof of seriousness for NEVS under Evergrande is June. Production start, yes or no? And this time please, really, and no staging for the media.

15 thoughts on "In 3 years. 1 million electric cars annually."

    • Honest? I did not know that …

      Jokes aside, I would like to know very seriously whether NEVZ is aiming for millions per year with just one single model (9-3) and within a single vehicle class. That would be completely unrealistic without any example and role model in the entire history of the automotive industry and also on the large Chinese market ...

      Unless the market is closed again and NEVZ is chosen to be part of a state-socialist and national mobility campaign (similar to Trabant and Wartburg in the GDR) ...

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      • Certainly not. If the “old” NEVS plans should somehow survive, the modular platform could cover almost all vehicle classes. And in a very intelligent way.

        • One question mark less. Thank you!

  • Other manufacturers have long outdated NEVS, auuserdem who knows NEVS at all and why should one buy a vehicle from them?
    What does NEVS have what other (electric) automakers do not have?

    Tesla has been writing red numbers for years, so how do NEVS want to make money?

    I can well imagine new SAAB models with alternative drives, too bad that none of the big car manufacturers would like to revive SAAB.

    I'm curious when NEVS is at the end.

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  • ONE CHILD POLICY?

    Does that mean NEVZ only wants to build cars with 9-3 EV 1.000.000 cars a year?

    Other manufacturers need several children for this (various models of different vehicle classes) ...

  • Nice, let us hope so.

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  • If I read through the whole story, I spontaneously remember the company NanoFlowCell.

    The company was founded by the controversial Swiss inventor Nunzio La Vecchia and he is said to have 'burned up' around CHF 50 million for the development of a redox flow battery (https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redox-Flow-Batterie).

    The concept of the redox flux battery was also propagated in the 1970 years by the Swiss power plant manufacturer BBC (now ABB) and tested at NASA for the energy storage and supply of spacecraft. Whether it was really used there, I do not know.

    La Vecchia had a development partnership with Koenigsegg. This was abruptly ended by Koenigsegg for reasons unknown to me. The vehicle, which La Vecchia and his team developed and presented 2015 / 16, may be based on the developments made at that time with Koenigsegg. At that time, the automobile press was very impressed, among other things, the German magazine Auto, Motor und Sport (not quite known for its friendliness towards foreign cars).https://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/fahrbericht/nanoflowcell-quantino-fe-im-fahrbericht-elektroauto-nachtanken/). According to the website of NanoFlowCell, the car has since covered hundreds of thousands of test kilometers (https://emagazine.nanoflowcell.com/viewpoint/350k-kilometre-quantino-48volt/).

    If I continue to rummage through the NanoFlowCell website, I find the announcement that a mysterious investor wants a large amount of cars (https://mediacenter.nanoflowcell.com/news/2018-06-13-order-received-for-the-first-quant-low-voltage-electric-vehicles-with-a-contract-value-of-more-than-31-billion-euros/abb7f07fab813645aba7731fe0432bfa/).

    From a physical point of view, a functioning and conceptually long-lived redox flow battery would be an energy storage that is also conceivable for a vehicle. To be this, the energy density of the exchange medium, which generates electricity when pressed through the membrane, would have to be increased sustainably. And that's exactly what La Vecchia claims to have done. I have never seen the car of NanoFlowCell myself. But what I can imagine is that Koenigsegg has a lot of knowledge about this battery concept. Evergrande is apparently looking for a long-lived income stream. And this could be the production and distribution of the exchange medium for a redox flow battery similar to gasoline for an oil company.

    For me, the upgrades in Evergrande Group companies' balance sheets indicate that Evergrande has presented lenders and the Chinese Financial Market Authority a viable concept that will enable the group to produce a positive cash flow.

    But you will not learn much more, at least not until the first cars roll.

    • ENERGY DENSITY

      But then you open up an exciting barrel. Thank you for info and links.

      NanoFlowCell itself writes that they achieved 600 Wh / l with their magical “fuel”. Truly a sensation, because on Wikipedia, the redox flow battery is only certified as 15 to 80 Wh / l, depending on the chemistry ...

      So you only need 1.000 liters of chemicals to fill up with as much energy as there is in 60 liters of diesel (10kWh / l). Which, by the way, is also available bio and CO2-neutral. I don't really know what to think of it? In any case, the topic is interesting ...

    • KNAPP 17 LITER

      Speaking of interest, the test car is very efficient with only 10 kWh on 100 km. Corresponds but also just 17l of the new miracle.
      In a vehicle of the upper middle class and at the recommended speed it should be more like 51 liters. In winter 52 (+1 for heating and ventilation). Doesn't have to be a problem technically. Without a combustion engine and gearbox, you can just build a 300 to 400 liter redox flow battery ...

      The exciting question is how much the wonder substance should and should cost per liter. Also ecologically. The need for the ominous liquid would be enormous, would be 6 to 8 times higher. So it should only cost an eighth, but it would have to be transported and distributed with eight times the effort. There is an economic factor of 8 ...

      I'm curious to see how this gap will be closed. Both economically and ecologically ...

      BioPower (ethanol, BioDiesel and BioGas) from agricultural and forestry waste - we already had the CO2-neutral solution within reach. But that would have been too easy. Much too easy. Can't be like that either ...

  • Before talking about 3 millions of vehicles, you should first start with the number 1.

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  • Ambitious goals ... that's how the article begins.
    The article shows that there is “a lot of calculations” in China ;-), that miscalculations are sometimes made etc. :-(.
    All in all, a dream of “the first league” in the mobility industry is shown.
    I stay cautious. Too many governmental influences possible for me ..., too many imponderables ..., too many previous "air numbers". The latter is crucial.
    So: we readers just have to wait for July 01.07.19st, XNUMX 🙂 Then we will know: They did it…, or not.

  • That all sounds good, but why doesn't Evergrande / Koenigsegg make another attempt to buy back the brand name SAAB from GM and bring their electric and / or fuel cell vehicles onto the market under the name SAAB, that would have a lot more traction. It is never too late to try again….

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    • The question is certainly justified. I'll introduce myself too. Why start with the NEVS brand (does anyone even know that person outside the blog?), If you could have SAAB?

      BTW: You can only buy at the SAAB AB, GM is out.

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