I published one here about a year ago Post with the heading “Automotive Industry. The perfect storm is coming ”. Looking back, I was wrong. Corona had no one on the radar in summer 2019. No storm is coming, but a big, difficult to estimate drama. The corona crisis resembles an iceberg. You can only see the smallest part of him. The bigger one remains hidden under the water.
The great dramas are coming.
One can gradually guess what is drifting towards the auto industry. The economic slump hits them at an inopportune time, and in the end it will be workers who will pay the bill. It is still relatively calm in Germany. Immediate aid cushions the problems. But they won't flow forever either, and if there is a fire in the roof of our neighbors, sooner or later the fire will affect the entire European house.
Example Spain. Nissan closes the plant in Barcelona. 3.000 jobs are lost, an additional 20.000 in the vicinity of the factory. Or France. Renault will have up to 15.000 jobs Streichen. Jobs at suppliers, which will also be affected, are not included. The German ZF Group has between 12.000 and 15.000 jobs in the crisis and the transformation of the industry dismantle. Half of them are in Germany, and it is possible that employees will experience wage losses over the course of the year. It's comparatively moderate there Munich to. 6.000 jobs at BMW are to be eliminated on the gentle tour in a socially responsible manner and through fluctuation.
The reports are a small cross-section from 48 hours last week. More would be possible, but you do not need to understand the seriousness of the situation. With the great dramas of the present, you almost forget the smaller ones of the past.
10 years ago in Trollhättan.
In the early summer of 2010, a miracle really seemed to be looming. In the Saab factory, the belts started again. Despite all the adversities in the run-up, something happened that no one had seriously expected. It was actually a miracle in a double pack. Because Victor Muller and the Saab team not only managed to revive the plant after months of downtime. They could also produce the new Saab 9-5 generation.
Unfortunately, what happened in Trollhättan was just a utopia. One of the smallest manufacturers in the world dares to restart. All alone, without a potent partner in the background. With contracts that weren't fair and were supposed to drag Saab down like a millstone. But with big ambitions. Electric car, hybrid - the plans for it weren't just in the drawer. A Saab world of experience on the green field in front of the factory, development work for other manufacturers.
The ideas seemed too fantastic to be true.
We quickly forget. Hardly anyone remembers what happened at Göta Älv in 2010. The contemporary dramas are too important for that. They overlay everything. Where will we be in 10 years from now, 2030? And how will we judge?
Trollhättan and what happened in 2010 will keep us busy for the next few months. A dose of Saab folklore, garnished with a little hope and sentimentality. A reappraisal, because you learn from crises.