Lockdown 2.0 - when the impacts are getting closer

Yesterday Post writing felt strange. The action takes place in spring 2020, Lizi and I are stuck because of the lockdown. Almost six months later we are stuck again - at least in part. With the Lockdown 2.0 restaurants, bars and cultural institutions will close. Life gets lonelier.

And that in the dark season

In the summer I had the slight hope of not having to experience all of this. The glass was half full and my illusion was that you could take it with you into winter like this. Hope was not fulfilled, it failed because of egoism and a lack of maturity.

A half full glass, to stick with my comparison, didn't appeal to anyone in the summer months. Depending on your interests, you wanted more. Fuller soccer stadiums, concert stages, vacation flyers, clubs, hotels and beaches. Industry representatives and lobbyists demanded the full glass or the complete beverage filling line. Warning voices, and there were, were without a chance.

Moderation would have worked. Joint European action too. But that wasn't all, and now winter is just around the corner.

And the impacts are getting closer

You get a different picture of COVID-19 when this virus strikes in close proximity. Suddenly it is no longer an abstract threat, but a real danger. One of my closest friends got it, despite all caution. I had dinner with him a few days earlier. When the news came, the first glance was on the calendar. Was dinner before - or after the infection? Germany can be a wonderful country sometimes. The chain of infection was understandable. The all-clear was given.

To me.

Less for my friend. It had what is called a mild course. However, mild is relative and COVID-19 is neither a minor flu nor a cold. He was switched off for a week, beaten for 14 days, tired and short of breath. The complete program. Now he's fighting his way back to everyday life. With weaknesses in concentration and stamina and the known side effects.

We are experienced

In principle, we all know that only discipline counts. A term from grandpa's days that is now becoming important again. Maintain hygiene with discipline, keep your distance, reduce social contacts. That is not easy. Right now when the days are getting shorter. No hanging out with friends after work, no dinner in the restaurant and no nightcap in the bar.

But we have a routine from Lockdown 1.0 and know what else is needed. Taking care of friends, neighbors and family and not leaving those behind who are alone. Making a phone call is old-fashioned, but hearing a nice voice is the best medicine these days. There are also chats, e-mails and a chat over the garden fence.

Small gestures count, and you can also ring the doorbell for your neighbor, who is alone and has no one left. As a blog, I try to make my small contribution so that we can all get through time together. With Saab stories that are an absolute minor matter and of no importance, but can distract and, ideally, inspire.

Maybe from time to time with a few thoughts on the current situation in this column. Then (almost) without an automotive background.

If one of the readers has something to say, I am happy about his contributions online courses can write. And with me the entire readership.

What is certain is that even the most difficult time does not last forever. Maybe a vaccine will come, but for sure next spring and sunny days. That alone is a lot.

15 thoughts on "Lockdown 2.0 - when the impacts are getting closer"

  • The best thing about the lockdown for SAAB drivers should be the (again) (almost) empty motorway, enjoy it, it will soon be over …… ..or the fuel prices at € 5….

  • I am thrilled - here in the SaabBlog there is a highly informative, calm and factual discussion about Covid-19 as I do not experience it at all in the - how do I put it most cautiously - "mainstream media" occurs ad hoc! Really great, thanks to everyone, to Tom and especially to August-Eric Huebner! I miss such voices in the official media!

  • @ August-Eric Huebner,

    Thanks again.

    In these uncertain times it helps me a lot if I can and may read that there are also conclusive explanations for seemingly contradicting numbers. Because such contradicting numbers fly around our ears every day ...

    Last to me today. The infection rate at Berlin schools (in absolute numbers) or the 4-phase traffic light, from green to yellow & orange to red, shows a clear decline - but above all a clear decline
    of all schools in Berlin.
    To sum up, almost 100 schools disappeared from the screen within a week and are no longer on the scale. Yellow and orange are declining accordingly. However, red has grown - in absolute numbers (!) And accordingly disproportionately in percentage terms.

    But who already forms checksums, calculates or thinks?

    It's a shame that administration, politics and the media raise more questions than answer them. It's great that you step into the breach in your practice and even in your free time (here). I really appreciate that. And I find it very reassuring - especially since 4 of my family of 3 are actually now in quarantine, I can no longer deal well with contradicting numbers and statements. However, yours are conclusive & plausible.
    Thank you.

  • @ Volvaab Driver
    That's right. The PCR test says nothing about a disease, much less about the stage of the disease. So the laboratory cannot do anything about this either. distinguish. It can only determine that viral RNA has been found in the smear. The CT value, which a reputable laboratory also supplies, can then tell me as a doctor how many amplifications = “multiplication steps” were necessary before the PCR test showed “positive”. With a CT value> 25, I have never seen a severe course in any of our patients.

  • @Volvaab Driver
    I do not want to spread any official doctrine on virological topics, but pass on what I have read, interpreted and tried to reconcile with my knowledge as a family doctor with> 30 years of experience in treating my patients.
    There is certainly a possibility that a positive PCR test will be found in someone who was previously ill with few symptoms and who did not assess their symptoms as CoViD19. He could also have infected someone again in the course of the acute illness, since not tested sick as CoVid19. It seems to depend a lot on the viral load / amount one has been infected with. There were fierce discussions about a possibly high number of unreported cases that had already gone unnoticed, which Professor Iohannidis postulated. For this he was first put down by the media by “opinion-making” virologists. In the meantime, he has had to be agreed in large parts, but this was not commented on in the media.
    Another possibility is that the positive test is taken from a person who, due to a low viral load, did not get sick at all. Unfortunately, highly official “persons” do not differentiate between “infected” and “contaminated”. An infection means the penetration of a "germ" (virus / bacterium / fungus) through the outer barrier into the organism, from which a more or less serious infectious disease develops depending on the amount of germs. A contamination is outside the barrier. A well-known example is the “hospital germ” MRSA, which is present before hospital admission. B. for an operation (inguinal hernia, removal of "material" after healed bone fractures) routinely searched and is found in otherwise completely symptom-free and "healthy" people. Here, too, one speaks of MRSA carriers, but not of sick people. Unfortunately, this distinction is not (!) Made with CoViD19, which I consider to be factually incorrect.
    Dear SAAB friends, we are a forum of SAAB / Volvo friends, and I do not want to “infect” our platform with SARS-CoV2. In my daily practice I only see a lot of worries and fears about “Corona”, and I would like to contribute a small part to the fact that more people understand what they have to understand in order to get through this time with a little less fear. Much of what is said to be “new” and “dangerous” about this virus is neither “new” nor “insidious”. It is m. E. It is a virus that is initially fairly unknown to our organism, which also explains the severe course of infection with a high viral load. So far, this has been the case with most viruses that have passed from animals to humans.

    If there are any further questions about “Corona”, Tom is welcome to forward my email address. We have repeatedly and trustingly corresponded with one another on the subject of “transatlanticists”.

  • August-Eric H.

    Thank you for this extremely interesting information, which is also very easy to understand for laypeople. That gives hope that we will learn to understand the virus, its peculiarities and transmission routes better and better and that we are on the right track! It is also reassuring that all of these surface contacts do not lead to an actual transmission of a living, infectious virus.

    Thank you for this training and have a nice weekend!

  • @ August-Eric Huebner (PS),

    if I read your comment again, it seems to me that I have probably not yet grasped a component correctly ...
    On my part, it seems to me that I understand correctly that infections that have been overcome can be counted as new infections?

    But you also point out that people who have never been infected could test positive if they had contact with fragments of the virus and these fragments could be detected in the laboratory? Is that right now and understood by me?

  • @ August-Eric Huebner,

    that is interesting. Many thanks.
    Do I correctly interpret that the “false” positive results probably indicate infections that have already passed unnoticed?

    That in the laboratory it is not possible to reliably differentiate between survived or active & infectious?

    That new infections can therefore be identified more reliably (and recorded more correctly in terms of numbers) if typical symptoms are a prerequisite for a laboratory examination?

    If I have understood correctly, the cat is biting its tail, because the infections that had passed unnoticed were previously contagious and since they ran without clear symptoms, they would not have been or have been since November 3.11rd. can no longer be tested.

    In order to understand the pandemic, to determine the R-factor and also to gain knowledge about the development of immunity in the herd, we would need both, or better still, all three data - a test procedure that reliably differentiates and records asymptomatic, symptomatic and survived infection processes. Is it correct that way?

  • @ Linus,

    I see it similarly and yet differently. On the one hand, I do not want to swap with any of our federal and state government members and I have great respect for their current tasks and achievements ...

    On the other hand, I don't want them to explain to me (or whoever) any more than they did before. I would much rather if you listened to the right people at the right time and gave them due recognition.

    In Berlin, the first lockdown started in spring when the health senator implemented all the demands of an office manager within 1 hours and from then on declared with great pride as a personal contribution.

    The fact that she discredited and sharply criticized him for his demands less than 24 hours before is a gift to her. Your good ear and - depending on your point of view - early or late insight within a few hours clearly speak for you ...

    Anyone can rate what they want, but conspiracy theorists with aluminum foil on their pears weren't there.
    The head of office probably saved several lives and earned a Federal Cross of Merit. The senator deserved a little more aluminum foil.

    At the same time, or for that very reason, the senator could probably also explain what exactly the pandemic was
    There is a difference between a hairdressing salon and a nail salon - while the office manager couldn't think of anything ...
    You can want to hear that from the senator, but I would prefer politicians who also listen from time to time.

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  • @ Volvaab Driver
    With the R-factor and the increasing number of “infections” this is of course possible, you just have to know how. In the past few weeks, we doctors have “tested what it takes”: people with and without symptoms, if only any reference to SARS-CoV-2 was suspected. This resulted in a large number of people being tested who, according to the RKI, actually did not have to be tested, but from whom a “positive” was reported despite the lack of symptoms. The test strategy given to us had led to a low “pre-test probability”, and this leads to a higher number of false positives. Lt. officially, these “cases” were included in the number of newly infected people, but this is wrong if the PCR test is correctly interpreted. This test detects viral RNA, i.e. the “matrix” for the virus, but not a replication-capable virus, and if I then have a high CT value, i.e. need a lot of amplifications of the test material to detect the RNA, the probability increases that it is only a question of virus components, not (!) but a virus capable of reproduction The “infected” will not be able to infect anyone, so the R-value will decrease despite increasing “new infections”. Everyone knows from experience and information over the past few months that positive smears from doorknobs and shopping carts have not triggered infections.
    The RKI has now taken these circumstances into account. Since November 03.11.2020rd, XNUMX we have only tested people with clear symptoms or with a “high probability of exposure”. People with few or no symptoms who are not related to risk groups or clusters should definitely not be tested. This strategy increases the likelihood of pre-testing and reduces the number of false positives. Inevitably, the number of "new infections" will decrease and correlate better with the R-factor.
    Why this test strategy was only used after the “lockdown” began is a question that, depending on your own considerations, leads to different answers.

  • Thanks for the nice contribution!
    Yes, the impacts are getting closer. I try to distract myself with good literature and read a lot right now.
    As a small recommendation at this point, the thriller “Kalmann”, which takes place in Iceland, and the really nice Scandinavian magazine “Nordis”, which I always enjoy.
    My highlight these days: My 9-3 from 99 came through the TÜV without a complaint! Great performance with 21 years and 240.000 KM on the counter.

  • Thanks for the words. There has to be a bit of thoughtfulness, I really appreciate that. Gladly more of it.

  • Dane Tom, it makes you think.
    All in all, our government is coping with this quite well, I think, but I would like a little more explanations, for example: Why do nail studios have to close and hairdressers are allowed to stay open? This would also significantly increase acceptance and reduce the influx of the “Corona freedom fighters” somewhat.
    Something else for those who always ramble about personal freedom during the Corona period:
    Winter is coming and no natural event diminishes personal peace more than the then prevailing weather conditions.
    Swimming trunks in the beer garden don't do well and crowded street cafés are rather rare at this time.
    Freedom primarily means adapting intelligently to unchangeable circumstances and not roaring around like a small child and stamping your foot, “I want to”.

    The completely spoiled have at least a hat on, even if it's made of aluminum :).

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  • Tom's Covid columns

    Thanks Tom. I already wrote that I would miss her. And yes, we could have prevented all of this and there were enough warning voices ...

    As I read here I get a message from my elder. The class is until 11.11. in quarantine and he had just been sent home. No joke.

    And just before reading this, I was listening to the ÖR. The RKI report a new maximum value of almost 20.000 new infections within 24 hours and the ÖR gives the current R-factor for D as 0,81 ...

    Although increasing numbers and a factor less than 1 are mutually exclusive, they are mathematically impossible.

    You can only do that in Germany, the land of thinkers. Somehow around three corners and through 2 wormholes and by means of the relativity of time, that also works.

    We can do it. We can do anything. We even manage increasing new infections with an R-factor smaller than 1. It would be stupid if we couldn't do that, because the R-factor is part of the Corona traffic light and if it were deep red including dots in Flensburg, it would not stay below 1.

    Who the hell is going to swallow that? And who does that really help? Honesty would be nice. Starting with an honest R-factor, followed by an honest discussion about whether an endless horror is really the better alternative and whether we are really and honestly on the right track ...

    The fact that we are now lying to ourselves and cheating on our own criteria does not bode well.

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  • Just a good contribution that makes you think, spreads hope and encourages the right behavior.

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